“Spring thaw- expecting of growth”- it was the topic of discussion in IV annual summit which passed in March, 3 «Trade in Russia». Judging by performances of experts and representatives of retail, occasions to pessimism on this question isn't present. Moreover, representatives of large trading and industrial chains are convinced that crisis played a positive role, having forced them to optimize business and to orient it on consumer’s inquiries.
Under forecasts of director Prosperity Capital Management of Aleksey Krivoshapko, in 2010 at inflation in 7-8 % demand will show growth in 10 %. It connects with the fact that in 2009 year housewives tried to lower consumption and they gave importance to saving of financial resources. As a result there was an essential growth of bank deposits. However, during the current year the situation will change – money again will return to consumption sector that, as a matter of fact, already has occurred, because the worst period for consumer's market was November, 2009 year and after that we observed insignificant but all the same growth of demand.
The expert thinks that such rally on Russian consumer’s market connects with estimated growth of personal incomes by means of increasing of wages for bureaucrats, state sector and pension. According to A. Krivoshapko, it is not necessary to wait for considerable growth of salaries in commercial sector. But at the same time taking into account price rises on production in metallurgy and power sector, growth of salaries will be not less than 10 %, and growth of incomes of the population - to 11 % in rubles. «If salaries increase, it means that money will go to retail», - the expert considered. Besides, as he said, the policy of savings in connection with decrease in depositary rates will change. It is obvious that the deposit at the rate in 6 % and a rate of inflation in 7-8 % is unprofitable. As consequence, all these means "will flow" in consumption sector, the sector of consumer crediting thus becomes more active. Banks will be compelled to invest saved excessive liquidity, and there will be nothing left for them to do but to finance consumers. That’s why, by estimations of director Prosperity Capital Management, in May-June, growth of sales of refrigerators, TV sets and other equipments will be already observed.
A.Krivoshapko marked that crisis made retail to overview the model of business, reorienting it on real consumer demand. Therefore the close attention began to be given to advertizing. «Strong players in the retail market will strengthen positions and will improve quality of business, bank financing will amplify, demand will increase», - such an optimistic forecast was given by the expert for 2010.
Vice president SELA Arcady Pekarevsky confirmed his prognosis concerning improvement of business quality. As he said, the crisis forced him to reconsider the approach to a business management and «to put things in order in the company». He talked about such actions as mending correction retraction “Salesman- consumer”, realization for a long time the ripened changes: change of technology of business management by means of introduction ERP, expansion of product mix. A.Pekarevsky witty noticed: «crisis is useful for slovens who have a big reserve for business modernization. It is important to remember that company development shouldn't be improved only from crisis till following crisis. Therefore, the main thing – is not to relax».
According to Arcady Pekarevsky, the results of such “brainstorming session” were not long in coming. In 2009 year, in the time of fall of sales, profit of the Company increased. And it happened by means of increasing of quality of business management.
Andrei Berejnoy, general manager of Ralf Ringer thinks that the Company managed to save its positions on market of footwear retail solely by means of efficient management. In particular, the company produced “crisis” strategy, oriented to long-term relations, support of wholesale and retail clients and growth of sales but not prices on the product. As A. Berejnoy said, adaptation of ERP helped to work efficiently in the crisis time.
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